In the geopolitical sphere, a leader can cast a peculiar shadow by one’s word and demeanor. Geopolitics is a game of chess; not poker. The Turkish President Recep Erdogan stated, “I am ready to resign if someone can prove that Turkey is buying oil from the Islamic State terrorist group.” A confident leader needs to establish an inordinate perception that there are other nations that need to accept lies which are agreed upon. It is best for a leader to lie in silence rather than words.
Once silence is established the following probabilities are infinite. Mathematic probabilities do exist even in silence; providing the role of a thinker is behind the silence to offer some clarity. Without the thinker, there is nothing for man to solve. We voluntarily allow the lie to exist until proven true or false or simply continue to lie to ourselves in making it true. In diplomacy there is a very delicate balance and order to not disrupt international business.
The Blue Stream is a major trans-Black sea pipeline that carries natural gas from Russia to Turkey. On December 1, Putin indicated, “We recently received additional reports that confirm that the oil from ISIL-controlled territories is delivered to the territories of Turkey on an industrial scale.” But again, Russia was very diplomatic. Putin’s Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov gave Turkey a lifeline by noting, “It could be intentionally or unintentionally.”
I suppose it’s really up to Turkey to suggest that they’re willing to pay reparation damages for the jet and Russian airman who was brutally killed. However for some reason, Erdogan fails to get his cues right in the world of international diplomacy. Erdogan vehemently stated, “I think if there is a party that needs to apologize, it is not us. Those who violated our airspace are the ones who need to apologize.” If Obama expresses regret over the Sukhoi Su-24 bomber incident and the degradation of the airman, then the Turkish president should do the honorable thing and say sorry.
Even though Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem suggested that John Kerry should check out reports of Erdogan’s son being involved in illegal oil trade with Islamic terrorists, it was followed by diplomatic silence. Sergey Lavrov could’ve been right when he stated, “The United States could not have been unaware of the scale of the Islamic oil industry but preferred to spare it.” It was a historic geopolitical mistake to punish nations with low oil prices; it had an adverse effect and established a geopolitical sequence of the survival of the fittest. It took time, but it did establish illegal networks that developed their own built-in networks to survive.
Eventually, competitive geopolitical terrorism will achieve the same characteristics of geopolitical oil. The business of terrorism will result in government bribes and third-party nations that require a carefully conceived logistical procedure of who should dominate the region. Exercising control over third-party nations will be a significant challenge to maintain global order. Certain businesses and countries rely on oil as the standard medium of exchange. With low oil prices and the abundance of oil, it becomes a dog-eat-dog world whereby the moral standard of the global order is jeopardized.
Lavrov didn’t pull any punches when he said, “Everything is a matter of practice, let us operate with facts. There have been many reports that God knows who is living off the oil wells illegally ceased by the Islamic terrorists.” These are a very bizarre turn of events and Tulsi Gabbard said it best, “These are diplomatic issues, not military.” When you have a coalition with so many variants that can’t seem to establish which terrorist is better suited for strategic advantage, then it sends a convoluted message to the military questioning which terrorists they are actually fighting.
Obama indicated, “I think Mr. Putin understands that for him to get bogged down in an inconclusive and paralyzing civil conflict is not the outcome he is looking for.” There is absolutely no rationality in this concept. If it is paralyzing for Putin, then it is paralyzing for Europe. This may not challenge the British sensibilities, but it will challenge those of the Germans. Obama’s fight against terrorism is genuine; however it is based on one-upmanship rather than focusing on the issue at hand.
Lavrov understands that it is more of a competitive nature. He pronounced, “US partners were forced so to speak in order not to lag behind us in the struggle against terrorist infrastructure.” But Lavrov also believes that the US should have destroyed the oil business straight from the start. Angela Merkel’s popularity slumped to its lowest level in 4 years. The German political and intellectual elites are wondering what type of terrorists they’ve been fighting for the past year and a half.
We need to put this whole scenario of terrorism into comical terms. We need to bring back Orwell, Darwin, and Chekhov. We also need to bring back Paul Krugman into the mix. All four of them are having a jolly good time eating and drinking while questioning why terrorism actually exists. Orwell points to the fact that it could be natural selection of terrorist groups with some groups being more equal than others. Darwin replies that perhaps the real story is the natural selection of which God will dominate. Chekhov decided to raise his glass and tell them that perhaps it’s the ones in the middle that know how to fight. Krugman insists that the reason why terrorism exists is because of austerity programs and that we should use economics to give them more of a good time so they can spend their money wisely. However as an economist, Krugman also made the assumption that he should not be in the middle. The four looked at each other and started to count; Krugman only counted to three because that’s all he could assume.